Tiny Quick Profits...

Not much to report today. Took two separate ES trades and got away with +1.5 net. Not a lot, but there wasn't much out there. More than that, I didn't lose once, and I got in with precision and i'm satisfied with the exits.



I'll be live on Monday. Its not the $$ factor that i'm impressed with, its the consistency I see in all the charts i'm looking at be it this week or in 2001 on a 240 min EURUSD chart. Traded correctly this method made money every day of the week (including FOMC for that matter).

So the sim has been fun, but its time to get back to reality and start getting back what I lost in my account through this transition. I feel like I've wasted a lot of time but when I look at where I was and how I was trading in comparison to what i'm doing now I could've taken 3x's as long and lost 2x's the money and it would still be worth it to have the knowledge and method I have today. It will quite literally pay dividends and its time to start getting paid.

Trade Results:

ES: +75.00
NQ: +0.00

Wham, Bam, Thank You M'am!

I'm telling you guys, I feel more confident with this method than anything, ever, period. The observations I was talking about on Tuesday are 110% the correct and perfect observation that need to be made to get the highest probability entries. Whats even more important is that i'm back in that mode of trading from January where I knew the method and the entries so well that I just sat back and waited for them to come to me with no interpretation, guessing or bias.


All that's required of me is to take it and manage it correctly and I can do that. I'm trading from a relaxed state of mind again and that is so important in the long run for being able to get up and do this everyday.

So onto the days action. This morning was rife with opportunity and I took it without even saying thank you. Two trades in the NQ for profit, and two trades in the ES one for profit and one for a tick out at par. But NO LOSERS. Win rates are important for me because they keep morale high and make it easier for me to pull the trigger. (I'll pull it either way, but isn't it easier following a winning trade with your next entry?) I think we can all agree it is.


Later in the afternoon I got into a nice NQ trade for +3.5 but got into a losing trade that cost me -1.75. But I said "Screw you NQ!" and pounced on a long for +2 to get it back with a bit of profit. Overall though... 6 wins and 1 loss (85% Wins!) are exactly how I want to be hitting these markets day in and day out.


Trade Results:

ES: +175.00
NQ: +155.00

Huge Learning Day

Today I realized something about how i'm trading that had completely gone unnoticed to me before and it really changes the outcomes and filters large scores of losing and low reward setups. This morning was harsh. I got tossed around like a ragdoll but I learned a lot. It reinforces exactly why i'm in sim with this. Because I learned a hell of a lot today about a setup I was already extremely confident about.

First off, some of this mornings losses were completely valid setups but there was some choppy consolidation as a tug of war was being raged around my positions. And in the ES it took me out for a -1.25 loss. In the NQ I took a trade that nailed me for I think -1.75 but then I looked at the setup and it voided itself on the entry bar I took. Slap hand. I played tug of war in both markets with some good trades and some bad trades. I took a -2 point loss in the ES to round out the morning and then was blindsided by what I realized. Almost 90% of my losing setups all had momentum still going against me when I entered. Which meant I had higher risk of outright failure and in many cases you weren't going to see the solid transitional shift in momentum because there was still too much against you when you were entering.


Just take a look at all the signals I could've filtered out. And notice the ones that remain are (I think) really good positions to take.



And this isn't just some fluke from yesterday and today. I started looking back over all my charts over the past decade in every symbol and market known to man and its all the same. Your best bet for profit with low risk and high reward are all on setups that price respects a transitional momentum outcome. The setups that are really heavily moving against you are the ones that offer lots of risk, lots of losers, and the occasional winner that typically doesn't go very far in favor.

So here's how the day stacked up without this filter used in the morning:

• NQ: -50.00, 3 Wins, 3 Losses (50% Win Rate)
• ES: -162.50, 1 Win, 2 Losses (33% Win Rate)

And here's what it would be using the filter:

• NQ: +40.00, 3 Wins, 1 Loss (75% Win Rate)
• ES: -62.50, 1 Win, 1 Loss (50% Win Rate)

It still would've been a rough morning but the odds (and the profit) are drastically different. So I put this into effect into the afternoon and whadaya know...

• NQ: +150.00, 2 Wins, 0 Losses (100% Win Rate)
• ES: +12.50, 1 Win, 1 Loss (50% Win Rate)

So overall i'm stoked about what I learned today and I can't wait to apply it on Thursday. Long story short is this... I screwed the pooch today learning stuff and I only walked away with a -25.00 loss? Really? And knowing what I know now the results are going to get better from here on out. Less market risk, less trades, better efficiency, more profit, less commissions and overall me kicking ass! :) Using what I know now this day should've been a +140 net rather than my loss but this is why i'm on sim! This is how the day actually ended up with all the mistakes and pre-realization trades.

Trade Results:

ES: -125.00
NQ: +100.00

Solid First Day

Took some really great trades and got comfortable with trading this new method live in real time. In fact, I was so excited to trade it I could barely sleep and got up around 3AM just to trade the EURUSD for a bit before going back to bed. The one losing trade I did have today I got taken out at the low tick for a 1 point loss. No biggie. The idea was obviously sound considering the massive run up following my entry.


I'm using much less risk most of the time, getting clean entries that seem to be working great and I really have confidence in this method. I'll take three wins and one loss any day of the week. But I just have to stay focused because I haven't proven anything yet. My rules are about 95% on this right now and really the only finessing i'm working on is managing the exits right now. I have found that there really is no good "one way works all the time" way to exit with the most profit. It requires some interpretation and feel in the real world so that's how i've been managing trades and will continue to do just that.


Regardless i'm stoked about the outcome of the first day and the relative ease with which it came. I'd also like to point out I would've had multiple losses with the "old" method today.

Trade Results:
ES: +175.00
NQ: +60.00

First day on sim...

First things first. I want to thank everyone for their comments yesterday and thank everyone of the "regulars" (Awais, Micheal, Stan) who follows this blog almost daily. Your comments and suggestions really help and make this all worth doing. So THANK YOU!

Second, I started on sim today after a fairly full night of charting and some trading in the currency markets. I really figured out a lot and cemented in the basic rule set that i'll be following. This morning I didn't even open up the charts because 1. I was way too tired to get up from all the trading that was going on until around 3 AM last night and 2. I decided to go get a haircut this morning and do my workout before lunch. So that left me with the afternoon and things went pretty much to plan. I took some really great trades in the NQ (all of which were winners) and I took a couple pars and a -1 tick loss in the ES.



Then I took another ES trade that did highlight something I needed to work on. I got short on a sell stop order and then the market consolidated again and gave another sell signal. It was at that point I needed to reset the stops via the new sell signal and reign them in. I didn't do that and the market reversed and hit me for a -2.25 point loss instead of the -1 point stop I should've gotten hit with. But its that kind of stuff that I needed to understand and evaluate in real time. And that's why I am simming this!


Overall though I was really really impressed. Nice crisp signals, much much less initial risk than before (some of the NQ trades were approaching 1 risk : 2 reward) and overall I thought a very good and profitable outcome. I ended up down in the ES due to my one screw up loss but bagged a solid 5 points in the NQ inside of an hour.

All in all its not perfect, its not finished, and i've got loads of work to due this weekend but I like what I see. I've decided that i'll be in sim until I bank 1K in profits. Hopefully I can do that by next Friday. That's the kind of opportunity I should be able to see to prove an edge worth betting on.

Have a great weekend!

Day 4 Pisses Me Off

Basically, I don't know what happened this morning but I entered an order that should've filled (my buy limit was 25.25 and it traded 25.00) but the DOM froze and the market depth was stuck below the trading price. Real weird shit. I tried to capture a picture of it but by the time I saved the image it had refreshed and was pulling up to the price in this image.


Long story short due to no fault of mine I missed out on a textbook +5 point profit. Only fair that I would take the next signal for a -2 point loss. Then in the afternoon I caught +1.5 on a move up and reversed out into a valid double top that stopped me out for -2.75 to end the day battered and bruised and net -162.50. Even with my win this morning I just feel like this "edge" is pretty thin. I mean the fact that my account is bleeding lower proves something. I shouldn't have to catch EVERYTHING to make money each day. If that's the case, then maybe the edge really isn't adequate.



But like everything in this path i'm on just when i'm down and out I have an inspired idea that spurs me on. Straight up though, i'm going to sim this on the NQ/ES starting tomorrow through next week and see how it goes. Stan from TradeToLast.com was right, and I need to take a step back, get my shit together and then make a go of it rather than decay my equity further. I thought my method that I was using was simple... I took that version of simple and put it on a diet. Hell maybe not even a diet... I basically cut its appendages off and performed a ritualistic decapitation on its ass. I tend to over engineer things and let them get too complicated. So i'm going to try a new idea out that seems to look promising and see how that goes.

I feel the entries are much more crisp, can be taken with much less risk, in more probable spots, more of the time and unlike what i've been doing they aren't guessing at a momentum shift that could occur - they are jumping in AT the momentum shift as it occurs. I have roughed a basic rules set around it and am doing backtesting for the remainder of the afternoon and then going into simming on the EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, and USDJPY into the night to see how it holds up.

Heres the trades from this morning using this new idea (there were no trades in the P.M. on either chart - which is better than losing money like I did!!!). Nothing too exciting but nice crisp entries, decent profits and almost NO waiting and hoping for the price to do what I want it to do. Because price should already be doing what I want it to do before I get in.



Its nothing complicated or interpretive. Basic entries into momentum breaks and holding it until the momentum dies off. But let me tell you something... If I missed one of these trades or wasn't filled due to a DOM error guess what? I had 3 more opportunities that all made money. That really isn't something I can say about my current method. If I miss the winner i'm basically f**ked for the day. I don't want to trade with those odds. I'm human and I need a method that's robust enough to allow me to miss something but still make money the next time around.

I'm not discouraged by this revelation. Rather i'm going to embrace it and hopefully let it push me in the direction i've needed to be going towards.

Day 3 Traded Correctly

Too bad there were no profits. I took a loss in the morning shorting a valid setup on the 1 minute chart. Reentry was allowed but the signal fired first on the 620 tick chart so I took the trade and managed it off of that chart. Problem being that chart said get to par so I did and I got taken out before the drop. The 1 minute signal was more relaxed, held through the backfill that stopped me out and would've made about 3 points. But the point is, I did the right stuff and fate just wanted to screw with me today.



Later in the afternoon I took a really nice fluid looking setup and got +1.75 out of it to get to par on the day. It was a good trade, good entry, good management, and good exit. Nothing else setup for the remainder of the day. So I walked out with a wash (minus commissions). Frustrating, but its better than a loss so we'll take it and run I suppose.

The only other thing to mention is that the slight changes I made in my entries and void criteria have really done a good job of keeping me out of bad trades this week and especially today. Even the megaphone pattern stuff I implemented yesterday... today there were three of them... and one of them actually did work for profit but guess what? The other two that failed would've erased that and more. And the relaxed trigger? That kept me out of two trades today that could've got me into losers.

So I am improving things but I still feel like i've been spinning my wheels because i've got nothing to show for it thus far. Just gotta keep at it!

Trade Results:

ES: +0.00