The Trend is your Friend until the End

Today I traded 110% correctly. I caught some tiny profits in the morning in the ES, caught the end of the downtrend for a loss in the NQ and then the end of a pop upwards in the ES for a -2.25 point loss. Both losses were the absolute ending points for the current trend they were in and that is the risk we run using a pullback strategy. I took one final trade this afternoon off a tick chart in the ES that looked doubtful but ended up paying up a little with a +2 point profit. That being said, i'm very pleased with my execution, management, and overall results considering there wasn't a lot for this method to capture today.

All in all pretty crappy day for this method but traded correctly, and I still walked away with profit (albeit not much!!!).

Trade Results:

ES: +50.00
NQ: -25.00

I Like Money

It fun making money isn't it? I think i'm going to do more of it. Its kind of addicting. I'm done at 9:15 this morning. I made money this week. Yup.

This morning I took one setup... it stop gunned me a little bit, took me out for -2.25 and then got me back in and popped for a TEXTBOOK +5.25. Done deal.


I screwed the pooch so often this week i'm sure the animal control authorities are on the way as we speak to put me in handcuffs and yet I was able to make money this week with this method. I took a loss I wasn't supposed to, I passed on over 25 points of profits through mismanagement, I wasn't live on the 10 point ES day on Tuesday, and I only traded two days and FIFTEEN minutes and I was still able to make money. Why?

Basically... it goes a little like this:

• I can identify pullbacks that are actually momentum shifts and avoid them (Never had this ability before).
• I have less risk on setups than ever before.
• I have more consistent entries than ever before (no more getting faked out into a market due to one candle!)
• I have more profit target options than ever before.
• I can catch runners and manage them (I've never traded without upper target profits that would cap runners).
• I have not one but THREE ways to get to par. Which allows me more safety, more of the time, in more conditions.
• MY SETUPS ARE SIMPLE. No divergence, no counter trend, stupid simplicity. Why complicate things?

Next week is going to be epic. I don't THINK it will be, I KNOW it will be. Even after the huge screw ups this month finding my initial entries were flawed, changing tactics and realizing yet again I was overcomplicating the easiest concept in the world, and changing tactics slightly again and finally finding profits and consistency in a manner i've never witnessed in my trading and I feel like i'm ready to do some damage.

We go to War on Monday. I'm going to make the SPOO's my bitch and I invite you all to watch!

Trade Results:

ES: +150.00
NQ: +0.00

First Day Traded Correctly!

Well not a huge day, but today I traded each signal that came, and did so without fault. I got perfect fills, had the balls to wait for my par levels to be hit and took profits appropriately.


I passed on an early trade because the EIA report was due out in about 20 minutes at the time so typically I wait to trade after they are released. No biggie. I took the next two signals and made +4 points in the morning. I followed the afternoon by taking two back to back losses. But they were both text book signals and I am completely fine taking those losses. I had a couple trades, even in the NQ that got up a good amount (+2-4pts) but just hit some major resistance and backfilled against me really really quickly before I could take profits. That's trading and it happens.


Oh how I wish I would've traded correctly yesterday! But whats the lesson gents? If I trade the method as it is supposed to be traded even with basically a 50% win rate today, missing a few winning trades (morning and lunchtime), and being screwed out of profits on a few more, I still made a tiny bit of money. And that's just what was offered up today. There was a lot yesterday, there was a little bit today, there may be losses offered tomorrow but as long as I stick with the method and act upon it more often than not i'll be profitable at the end of the day.


I'm also going to be just posting up my spreadsheets at the end of each week as it was getting a little out of hand posting it everyday.

Trade Results:

ES: +50.00
NQ: +0.00 (Slipped a tick on a par trade)

So Much Opportunity!

Today coulda, woulda, shoulda been the best trading day i've ever had. I screwed it up. I took a nice trade in the NQ in the morning got to par, was high ticked out before it went for +10... this however was the best trade of the day as it was appropriately taken and managed. No biggie.


I took another short in the ES, and then shorted it again. I lost but it made me realize a very simple thing about my patterns and something i'm stupid for not realizing sooner. So i'm more than happy to pay for the lesson. 2.25 points? Cheap considering what its going to save me in the long run. With that lesson in hand I used it later on it the day to avoid pullbacks that were actually momentum shifts and was able to avoid losses. Yay.



Then I started really screwing the pooch. I took a long trade in the es, the actual entry was 57.75, but the market had jumped so quickly on the bar close I jumped in at 58.25 rather than the actual fill. Those two ticks ended up causing a lot of problems. Par came as ordered, but because I wasn't in at the right price I was ticked out for par before it went on for a TEXTBOOK +11.75 points. Yea. Would've been my biggest ES trade ever. Fun times.


Later in the day I took another signal, this time I got in at the right price, but I got too ancy getting to par, violated the rules and was ticked out before it went TEXTBOOK +7 points. Yea.

Overall the method was TITS. I was ASS. I'm encouraged yet again by what i'm seeing now that i've been blind to for so long but i'm disappointed I haven't capitalized on it correctly. I have screwed up as much as I intend to. Tomorrow its on like donkey kong.

I'd also like to point out to Awais that I didn't use "We" once in this blog entry. :)

Trade Results:

ES: -150.00
NQ: +5.00

We're Live Tommorrow

I needed one day to prove what I suspected was true. Does it pick out every winner in the book? No. Can I get every signal out there? No. Today I missed out on two trades in the NQ that were signals for over +17 points that either I passed on because other markets had broken the patterns or because I was already in ES trades. The point is this. It works. Done and done.

Was today volatile and a nice trend day? Yup, and guess what? I just bought it all the way up. Obviously i'll still have losing days. But from everything i've seen the losers are much less frequent, the winners are much more consistent and profitable more of the time and I don't find myself fighting the market momentum hardly ever.

The results are entirely 110% how I would trade this method real time, live with my account. That's how I sim. If its not real, there's no point.

I think the results speak for themselves... so i'll let them.




The one loss on both the ES and the NQ was a stop run. That crap happens regardless and it can't be avoided. Otherwise, can you spot a trend here?

Your Regular Scheduled Programming will NOT be Shown...

I got smattered today. My triggers are effin' lame. Too quick, too jumpy. My targets don't get hit without a direct act of god. My pars are too aggressive. My entries are too elaborate. Too ineffective. The method is vulnerable. My account is vulnerable. And in the disaster I had a revelation. The concept is simple. The setups are even more simple. Logical. The targets are dynamic and more accessible. The entries are more consistent, more momentum based.

All of this builds on an idea I had one day not so long ago when I was making a free "how to trade video". I remarked at the time that it looked good enough to trade (even though it was an idea that I had pulled out of my ass in about 30 seconds). It wasn't complete at the time. I spent 4 hours today reading a thread on the notorious Elite Trader forums. The idea in the thread wasn't to my liking - but in the process it gave me ideas, ideas that evolved into whats sitting in front of me as I speak. And it looks good. Damn good. It makes my "holy grail" that killed me today, all last week, and would've tortured me for the rest of eternity look like chicken shit.

I'm going to sim it this week. I know what the backtests suggests... Check back tomorrow and we'll see how the results come in. I make this promise to you all right here and now. If this shit works... like really works... it will be the most annoying truth in trading i've ever faced.

No swings = No trades

Today was an odd occurrence in price action that does happen from time to time. This morning there were no Pivot Highs/Lows being marked on my charts in the ES (and NQ for that matter). This told me something VERY important. It says that price action is messy enough that a simple algorithm to point out highs and lows of swings can't be calculated. So its at that point I sit on my hands because my edge disappears. I'm not able to gauge relevant swings, and thus not able to gauge trend direction, price patterns, everything. Now the NQ did kick into some normalcy by around the time i'm writing this but the ES has yet to show one swing high or low. So basically, there were no trades today because there weren't any swings I could measure and apply my methodology to. (The NQ offered no valid setups on the swings it did print up).


So this week ends with a net loss overall. We simply recognized our failures and weaknesses too late to save face with our overall profit. But i'll be burning the backtesting oil yet again to get final outcomes of trades using our revised stop management to lock in profits and our discretionary filter.

All things considered the fact that we only ended up down about 45.00 net after all the mistakes we made is a testament to the new systems potential. Lets put it in very real terms. On Tuesday I took -262.50 worth of losses I DIDN'T NEED TO. Discretion filters those trades now. Wednesday we corrected our mistakes and while we didn't knock it out of the park, we didn't lose money. Thursday we took a great trade but didn't take any profit on it so we missed out on an easy +150.00 worth of profits there. All said and done, we were missing a 412.50 swing in profits and we still ended the THREE DAY week only down 45 bucks? On this fantastically crappy and choppy expiration week? Um yea.

So we'll be finalizing everything over the weekend. Setting it in stone and getting ready to finally start our equity growth again next week!

Trade Results:

No Trades Taken.