Tuesday, May 4, 2010

An Update

Well I wish I could waltz in this week with stories of revised setups and success but i'm afraid i'm going to have to disappoint. I have never had such a quick reversal of fortune - from delusions of grandure Friday morning, to just delusions Friday evening, to desperatly scrambling for something - anything Saturday and Sunday, to outright failure Monday and today.

I have literally spent 14-18 hours in front of this screen for the past 4 days trying to come up with something - anything that looked like it might have a chance. What i've found has pretty much humbled me into submission. The setups I was using before all of this recent simulation shenanigans are still critically flawed with their risk : reward. If you shrink the risk you amp up the losses, and if you increase the reward you amp up the par efforts where +10-15 turns into naught.

I'm not giving up - if this blog is a testament to anything its that I keep taking the hits and finding something to spur me on my way. But I will say this - I haven't been this disalusioned with the past 5 years of this trading journey as much as I am right now. Typically when I fall I find something to latch onto that gives me renewed hope for profitability and consistency. This time? I'm still falling and haven't found anything to catch me just yet.

Sorry to have nothing to report to the influx of new followers to this blog just when things looked like they might be getting saucy but I just got laid out by reality and shes a cold hard bitch.

8 comments:

TuxedoCat said...

Well, your sample size was always too small. But I don't think your systems are without merit. They just need some extra qualifiers.

Michael said...

I feel for you Matt, I know how that feels. I wish I had some great advise to give you, but I'm sure you've seen my equity chart, so I'll keep my mouth shut. ;-)

Just hang in there, good luck!!!

E-Mini Player said...

Msg me if you wanna talk shop this weekend or wanna go over anything. We need to order those Lambos!

TST said...

Matt,

I'm not good in (English) words, so I will let the Dr talk to you.


http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/04/four-leaf-clover-principle.html

Dr Brett : "I never actually found one by looking for it; rather, I would be walking along and one would suddenly jump out at me. It was being primed to see one, but not *trying* to see it, that would lead to the discovery.

Most things are like that in life, I realized. You can't *make* things happen. You can't make people like you, you can't make stocks move your way, and you can't make yourself successful. When you press to make things happen, you're no longer properly primed to see opportunity when it presents itself. You're so busy looking for the clover that you miss the patch that lies several steps ahead.

ForexChick said...

This really hits home. I really feel you there mate but remember, you will only fail if you quit. Keep on going and you will get there.

Richard said...

Maybe for lack of a new idea, you should continue trading the last one in SIM in the meantime. Perhaps you are stumbling onto the 'right' rules subconsciously and your backtesting program is just a pale reflection of what you actually do.

Matt said...

You guys all have valid points and offer up some good advice. And I thank you all for your input.

I'm continuing to work but am really trying to focus on achieving a true 2:1 setup. At each one of my foibles it always seems to get back to winners not making up for losers. Its where I try and eek out that additional risk reduction or hold for that additional gain that I tend to fumble.

I'll post up some of the ideas this coming week!

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