Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Tuesday Goes...

Not much again today. Took some great trades today, managed everything well, exited well. A great day. That being said, it wasn't that profitable of a day. Just not a lot in the moves that I took. But I captured what was prudent and a winning day is a winning day. 5 trades today, 1 loss (-1 NQ point), 1 par, and three for profit trades. Not bad. And i'm not going to scoff at my earnings today because I did everything I needed to do and this was the outcome. Consistent growth, whatever amount is what i'm shooting for. The rest of my issues can be solved by simply adding size in the future. I certainly wouldn't have an issue walking away with today's profit (or yesterday's) on a 10 lot.

I have talked about this before a bit and I just want to reiterate that most of us starting out in this game focus a LOT on getting the maximum number of points per day possible. Most pro's I know and have traded with think of it in opposite terms. My mentor was always one to advocate trying to average two ES points per day and just adding size.

The harsh reality is most of us (myself included) would give anything to average 1 ES point per day in profits. Why? Because we all know that with size that's more than enough money to pay for anything we will ever want or need in life. The key then is that you don't make 1 point on average a day for awhile and then lose 5 or 10 points in one day. Which is why i'm focusing so much on giving myself options to get out of trades and minimizing drawdowns. I don't even want to trade a setup unless it is a 80-90% win rate. Its not about how much you make in profits, its about how much you give back!

So was today a 300.00 day? Nope. Was it enough? Yup.

Trade Results:

ES: +50.00
NQ: +5.00

Monday, March 30, 2009

Monday Goes...

Not a lot of action today, but solid entries and i'll take what I got. No ES trades fired but there was adequate action in the NQ to capitalize on. Three trades, 1 par, 2 profitable, all technically winners, managed correctly, entered correctly, and exited well. Didn't capture everything in the moves but I got out where and how I thought prudent at the time and based off the price action I was seeing.

In other news I did just want to give a small update on what I have been working on over the weekend in response to Thursdays outcome. As I mentioned on Thursday, I took good entries but I wasn't able to get to par on a lot of them and they came back in my face. Many of you know that I use Keltner Channels to gauge momentum and I had been using them as potential profit areas or par areas in the past with my other pullback methods. It really is that simple. Thursday should've most likely been a TINY loss. Not anywhere near what it was. And the only thing that needed to change was for me to say "You know, price is trading at its opposing Keltner Channel and there is a good probability that it might stop here. I might want to get to par". So thats all i've decided to do. Looking back over what my logged entries were, it got me to par about the same places and it AVOIDED TAKING HUGE LOSSES. Furthermore getting in on moves that are already at the Keltner Channels don't represent good opportunities for continuance and those entries will be filtered in the future.

I used those rules in my trading today and had no issues. This game isn't so much about winning huge amounts as it is taking consistent profits and AVOIDING GIVING IT BACK. The only problem with what I was doing last week is that I had very limited options to get to par. Not anymore.

Trade Results:

ES: +0.00
NQ: +85.00

Thursday, March 26, 2009

A Disastrous Day

I will keep this short and simple because there isn't anything I did or didn't do well. The setups just f**ked me continuously today. The first setup wasn't that great admittedly, and I probably should've passed, but it was valid I did take it and it did bring me pain.

From there on it was one trade after another that would work a little bit, not give me an exit and reverse hard against me instantly to stop me out. The trades that did work would backfill and take me out at par before giving me profit. It went on like that the entire day. The drawdown deepened and finally I just called it quits around 1:30 after another ES trade failed. It was so aggravating to see trades that went +2-3 points but didn't give a par OR an exit signal only to reverse and stop me out for my max loss. It was just shit like that continuously today.

I'm not going to lose more than 500 bucks in a day. So I called it quits and I turned off the charts. I have NEVER seen so many bad trades on any given day before. I couldn't believe how badly I was hitting them. But days like today will happen and it sucked. Thing is though I followed my rules, I stuck to my guns holding for my textbook exit and par signals and nothing worked. Plain and simple. I guess the silver lining is that I DID execute well and that I didn't start bending my rules and revenge trading.

Trade Results:

ES: -412.50
NQ: -60.00

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Not a lot of oppritunity!

No trades signaled in the A.M. In fact I didn't get my first trade of the day until around 1:30 in the afternoon. I took two ES trades that were good entries, both I should've walked away with more than I did (one should've been an even par, the other +.75) but on both literally as I clicked in orders for exits the market just slammed away and I had to sacrifice profit to get an exit. I took an NQ setup that fired on both the tick and the time chart. Its pretty rare that this happens but I decided to manage off the time chart for an exit and I got a par. The tick chart offered up a measly +.75 and that's just the luck of the draw.

All in all though I traded the signals correctly, and I waited patiently for them to occur. Not much more that I can do other than that. Some of the exits weren't ideal but at the speed price was whipping around at some of these levels i'm happy to get away with what I did. Furthermore, this kind of day is what I consider outlier price action - pretty big and sustained trends and strong momentum moves EVERYWHERE. That doesn't jive well with my method and thus, there wasn't much for me to do today. The point is that I didn't get killed on a day that offered little opportunity for me, I walked away basically unharmed and with 99% of my capital intact which allows me to play in the sandbox again when conditions may be more favorable.

One other thing of note is that i've been trading the 1min/3min/5min EURUSD charts in the P.M. with big size (70+ lots) in sim. I think this is good practice for two reasons. 1. Its more experience, more entries, more management, more exits, just MORE. 2. Huge size f**ks with your mind, screws with your head, and messes with your management. It really takes discipline to hold for solid exits and manage correctly when the P/L may be at +3500.00 and you want to bail... but your exit isn't fully realized until your at +6500.00. Its hard to hold, and that means its good practice!!!

And its not bad to walk away +30k after an hour and a half of scalping! :)

Trade Results:

ES: -12.50
NQ: +0.00

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Day 2

Traded really well in the A.M. and took a short in the NQ that worked out well, and a par in the ES that just decided not to go anywhere.

In the afternoon I straight up missed an NQ entry because I wasn't paying attention and while it only would've made me +1.25 missed profit is still missed profit. I bought the NQ on a valid entry and got stopped out for a -1.75. Then I got long in the ES and stopped out right away. My mistake was re-entering the market on a second valid entry. The reality is I shouldn't re-enter on failed entries. Lesson learned. The exchange cost me -3 es net (-1.5 on each entry). But the idea was sound regardless and the loss was valid.

Even with not missing that NQ signal and not re-entering the ES a second time I would still end the day down. But there is a significant difference (-10.00 vs. -110.00) but that just reinforces the need to focus during the day and stick to the rules!

Trade Results:

ES: -150.00
NQ: +40.00

Monday, March 23, 2009

First Day Live (Again)

I gotta say... I think I kicked some serious ass today. Was it a 500.00 day? Nope. But I took 5 trades and had 4 winners and 1 par. I consider that effin' SOLID. Here's the action in the NQ from this morning (no ES setups signaled in the A.M.).

As you can see there wasn't huge profit potential in a lot of them but what was available I captured fairly well and I got in with precision, low risk, and solid management. In the afternoon I took another NQ trade that I had to sacrifice for +.5 as it was transitioning into a short signal against my long position.

Then the ES said "Hey, i'm ready to give you money" so I politely agreed and took the bitch for all she was worth. The first trade I probably could've gotten a tick or two out of had I held just a *bit* longer but it was turning ugly and I got out at par. Second trade signaled pretty much right after that and as you can see I got a pretty damn solid entry. Some may ask, "But why did you get out so "soon?" Two reasons. 1: I didn't know that the ES was going to go vertical +15 points in a straight line and its not a high probability I would bet on at anytime, and 2: I got twice what I had risked on the trade. I'm content with that profit.

After those entries the markets went elevator style and offered no further opportunities for myself. Think I care? Nope. I got in and out today with finesse and control and I didn't lose once. Not only that but this puny little day still equated to a 3.7% account growth on my depleted live account and i'll take that kind of growth any day of the week with no complaints!

Trade Results:

ES: +87.50
NQ: +80.00

Friday, March 20, 2009

Tiny Quick Profits...

Not much to report today. Took two separate ES trades and got away with +1.5 net. Not a lot, but there wasn't much out there. More than that, I didn't lose once, and I got in with precision and i'm satisfied with the exits.

I'll be live on Monday. Its not the $$ factor that i'm impressed with, its the consistency I see in all the charts i'm looking at be it this week or in 2001 on a 240 min EURUSD chart. Traded correctly this method made money every day of the week (including FOMC for that matter).

So the sim has been fun, but its time to get back to reality and start getting back what I lost in my account through this transition. I feel like I've wasted a lot of time but when I look at where I was and how I was trading in comparison to what i'm doing now I could've taken 3x's as long and lost 2x's the money and it would still be worth it to have the knowledge and method I have today. It will quite literally pay dividends and its time to start getting paid.

Trade Results:

ES: +75.00
NQ: +0.00

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Wham, Bam, Thank You M'am!

I'm telling you guys, I feel more confident with this method than anything, ever, period. The observations I was talking about on Tuesday are 110% the correct and perfect observation that need to be made to get the highest probability entries. Whats even more important is that i'm back in that mode of trading from January where I knew the method and the entries so well that I just sat back and waited for them to come to me with no interpretation, guessing or bias.

All that's required of me is to take it and manage it correctly and I can do that. I'm trading from a relaxed state of mind again and that is so important in the long run for being able to get up and do this everyday.

So onto the days action. This morning was rife with opportunity and I took it without even saying thank you. Two trades in the NQ for profit, and two trades in the ES one for profit and one for a tick out at par. But NO LOSERS. Win rates are important for me because they keep morale high and make it easier for me to pull the trigger. (I'll pull it either way, but isn't it easier following a winning trade with your next entry?) I think we can all agree it is.

Later in the afternoon I got into a nice NQ trade for +3.5 but got into a losing trade that cost me -1.75. But I said "Screw you NQ!" and pounced on a long for +2 to get it back with a bit of profit. Overall though... 6 wins and 1 loss (85% Wins!) are exactly how I want to be hitting these markets day in and day out.

Trade Results:

ES: +175.00
NQ: +155.00

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Huge Learning Day

Today I realized something about how i'm trading that had completely gone unnoticed to me before and it really changes the outcomes and filters large scores of losing and low reward setups. This morning was harsh. I got tossed around like a ragdoll but I learned a lot. It reinforces exactly why i'm in sim with this. Because I learned a hell of a lot today about a setup I was already extremely confident about.

First off, some of this mornings losses were completely valid setups but there was some choppy consolidation as a tug of war was being raged around my positions. And in the ES it took me out for a -1.25 loss. In the NQ I took a trade that nailed me for I think -1.75 but then I looked at the setup and it voided itself on the entry bar I took. Slap hand. I played tug of war in both markets with some good trades and some bad trades. I took a -2 point loss in the ES to round out the morning and then was blindsided by what I realized. Almost 90% of my losing setups all had momentum still going against me when I entered. Which meant I had higher risk of outright failure and in many cases you weren't going to see the solid transitional shift in momentum because there was still too much against you when you were entering.

Just take a look at all the signals I could've filtered out. And notice the ones that remain are (I think) really good positions to take.

And this isn't just some fluke from yesterday and today. I started looking back over all my charts over the past decade in every symbol and market known to man and its all the same. Your best bet for profit with low risk and high reward are all on setups that price respects a transitional momentum outcome. The setups that are really heavily moving against you are the ones that offer lots of risk, lots of losers, and the occasional winner that typically doesn't go very far in favor.

So here's how the day stacked up without this filter used in the morning:
  • NQ: -50.00, 3 Wins, 3 Losses (50% Win Rate)
  • ES: -162.50, 1 Win, 2 Losses (33% Win Rate)

And here's what it would be using the filter:
  • NQ: +40.00, 3 Wins, 1 Loss (75% Win Rate)
  • ES: -62.50, 1 Win, 1 Loss (50% Win Rate)

It still would've been a rough morning but the odds (and the profit) are drastically different. So I put this into effect into the afternoon and whadaya know...
  • NQ: +150.00, 2 Wins, 0 Losses (100% Win Rate)
  • ES: +12.50, 1 Win, 1 Loss (50% Win Rate)

So overall i'm stoked about what I learned today and I can't wait to apply it on Thursday. Long story short is this... I screwed the pooch today learning stuff and I only walked away with a -25.00 loss? Really? And knowing what I know now the results are going to get better from here on out. Less market risk, less trades, better efficiency, more profit, less commissions and overall me kicking ass! :) Using what I know now this day should've been a +140 net rather than my loss but this is why i'm on sim! This is how the day actually ended up with all the mistakes and pre-realization trades.

Trade Results:

ES: -125.00
NQ: +100.00

Monday, March 16, 2009

Solid First Day

Took some really great trades and got comfortable with trading this new method live in real time. In fact, I was so excited to trade it I could barely sleep and got up around 3AM just to trade the EURUSD for a bit before going back to bed. The one losing trade I did have today I got taken out at the low tick for a 1 point loss. No biggie. The idea was obviously sound considering the massive run up following my entry.

I'm using much less risk most of the time, getting clean entries that seem to be working great and I really have confidence in this method. I'll take three wins and one loss any day of the week. But I just have to stay focused because I haven't proven anything yet. My rules are about 95% on this right now and really the only finessing i'm working on is managing the exits right now. I have found that there really is no good "one way works all the time" way to exit with the most profit. It requires some interpretation and feel in the real world so that's how i've been managing trades and will continue to do just that.

Regardless i'm stoked about the outcome of the first day and the relative ease with which it came. I'd also like to point out I would've had multiple losses with the "old" method today.

Trade Results:
ES: +175.00
NQ: +60.00

Friday, March 13, 2009

First day on sim...

First things first. I want to thank everyone for their comments yesterday and thank everyone of the "regulars" (Awais, Micheal, Stan) who follows this blog almost daily. Your comments and suggestions really help and make this all worth doing. So THANK YOU!

Second, I started on sim today after a fairly full night of charting and some trading in the currency markets. I really figured out a lot and cemented in the basic rule set that i'll be following. This morning I didn't even open up the charts because 1. I was way too tired to get up from all the trading that was going on until around 3 AM last night and 2. I decided to go get a haircut this morning and do my workout before lunch. So that left me with the afternoon and things went pretty much to plan. I took some really great trades in the NQ (all of which were winners) and I took a couple pars and a -1 tick loss in the ES.

Then I took another ES trade that did highlight something I needed to work on. I got short on a sell stop order and then the market consolidated again and gave another sell signal. It was at that point I needed to reset the stops via the new sell signal and reign them in. I didn't do that and the market reversed and hit me for a -2.25 point loss instead of the -1 point stop I should've gotten hit with. But its that kind of stuff that I needed to understand and evaluate in real time. And that's why I am simming this!

Overall though I was really really impressed. Nice crisp signals, much much less initial risk than before (some of the NQ trades were approaching 1 risk : 2 reward) and overall I thought a very good and profitable outcome. I ended up down in the ES due to my one screw up loss but bagged a solid 5 points in the NQ inside of an hour.

All in all its not perfect, its not finished, and i've got loads of work to due this weekend but I like what I see. I've decided that i'll be in sim until I bank 1K in profits. Hopefully I can do that by next Friday. That's the kind of opportunity I should be able to see to prove an edge worth betting on.

Have a great weekend!

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Day 4 Pisses Me Off

Basically, I don't know what happened this morning but I entered an order that should've filled (my buy limit was 25.25 and it traded 25.00) but the DOM froze and the market depth was stuck below the trading price. Real weird shit. I tried to capture a picture of it but by the time I saved the image it had refreshed and was pulling up to the price in this image.

Long story short due to no fault of mine I missed out on a textbook +5 point profit. Only fair that I would take the next signal for a -2 point loss. Then in the afternoon I caught +1.5 on a move up and reversed out into a valid double top that stopped me out for -2.75 to end the day battered and bruised and net -162.50. Even with my win this morning I just feel like this "edge" is pretty thin. I mean the fact that my account is bleeding lower proves something. I shouldn't have to catch EVERYTHING to make money each day. If that's the case, then maybe the edge really isn't adequate.

But like everything in this path i'm on just when i'm down and out I have an inspired idea that spurs me on. Straight up though, i'm going to sim this on the NQ/ES starting tomorrow through next week and see how it goes. Stan from TradeToLast.com was right, and I need to take a step back, get my shit together and then make a go of it rather than decay my equity further. I thought my method that I was using was simple... I took that version of simple and put it on a diet. Hell maybe not even a diet... I basically cut its appendages off and performed a ritualistic decapitation on its ass. I tend to over engineer things and let them get too complicated. So i'm going to try a new idea out that seems to look promising and see how that goes.

I feel the entries are much more crisp, can be taken with much less risk, in more probable spots, more of the time and unlike what i've been doing they aren't guessing at a momentum shift that could occur - they are jumping in AT the momentum shift as it occurs. I have roughed a basic rules set around it and am doing backtesting for the remainder of the afternoon and then going into simming on the EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, and USDJPY into the night to see how it holds up.

Heres the trades from this morning using this new idea (there were no trades in the P.M. on either chart - which is better than losing money like I did!!!). Nothing too exciting but nice crisp entries, decent profits and almost NO waiting and hoping for the price to do what I want it to do. Because price should already be doing what I want it to do before I get in.

Its nothing complicated or interpretive. Basic entries into momentum breaks and holding it until the momentum dies off. But let me tell you something... If I missed one of these trades or wasn't filled due to a DOM error guess what? I had 3 more opportunities that all made money. That really isn't something I can say about my current method. If I miss the winner i'm basically f**ked for the day. I don't want to trade with those odds. I'm human and I need a method that's robust enough to allow me to miss something but still make money the next time around.

I'm not discouraged by this revelation. Rather i'm going to embrace it and hopefully let it push me in the direction i've needed to be going towards.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Day 3 Traded Correctly

Too bad there were no profits. I took a loss in the morning shorting a valid setup on the 1 minute chart. Reentry was allowed but the signal fired first on the 620 tick chart so I took the trade and managed it off of that chart. Problem being that chart said get to par so I did and I got taken out before the drop. The 1 minute signal was more relaxed, held through the backfill that stopped me out and would've made about 3 points. But the point is, I did the right stuff and fate just wanted to screw with me today.

Later in the afternoon I took a really nice fluid looking setup and got +1.75 out of it to get to par on the day. It was a good trade, good entry, good management, and good exit. Nothing else setup for the remainder of the day. So I walked out with a wash (minus commissions). Frustrating, but its better than a loss so we'll take it and run I suppose.

The only other thing to mention is that the slight changes I made in my entries and void criteria have really done a good job of keeping me out of bad trades this week and especially today. Even the megaphone pattern stuff I implemented yesterday... today there were three of them... and one of them actually did work for profit but guess what? The other two that failed would've erased that and more. And the relaxed trigger? That kept me out of two trades today that could've got me into losers.

So I am improving things but I still feel like i've been spinning my wheels because i've got nothing to show for it thus far. Just gotta keep at it!

Trade Results:

ES: +0.00

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Day 2 Botched Like a Bitch

Flat out missed one signal today that would've been a huge winner (at least in my terms). I was in the trade but I didn't follow what the chart said and I got to par too quickly and got taken out right before it popped a good 5-7 points in favor. Unacceptable - period.

The rest of the day came and went with wins, pars, and basically losses. But I have been monitoring a pattern which seems to keep screwing me over and faking me into trades. It did it again today which brings the total tally up to 4 trades in 5 days that all lost because of the underlying chart pattern. I look for H, HH's and L, LL's to get into "trend trades" right? Only problem being the megaphone patterns which is comprised of a L, LL, HH, LH pattern (or the opposite for shorts). This thing shouldn't be regarded as valid as far as i'm concerned because as its proven its not actual trend transition, but just chop in a market place. Lesson learned I suppose, but not after it got me down to -75.00 net on the day.

I'm not beating myself up over the megaphone... that's what I paid up to learn today but I am beating myself up over my mismanagement. You can't be a successful trader and do that crap. And either I get it together now or my accounts going to be gone along with my career by May.

Trade Results:

ES: -75.00

Monday, March 9, 2009

Day 1 Traded Correctly...

Not much to talk about. Took a loss in the morning catching the end of the trend then caught a +4.25 and +1.5 to get up a decent amount on the day. I tried to get into another valid double bottom but as you can see there was no fill since the open and the low were the same on that entry. Oh well. There was a valid trade good for 2 points but it fired off at 11:58 (and rules say no go until 12) and then later in the afternoon I took a double bottom setup that was really kind of odd and didn't look nice but it was valid so I did what I was supposed to do and took a -1.75 loss.

Overall not a very profitable day, but a profitable day. More than that, I traded correctly and executed well. Bring on tomorrow.

Trade Results:

ES: +87.50

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Weekend Update: Greedy Bastard Edition

First things first since I didn't take any trades on Friday (there was money but I didn't trade - more on this in a minute) so to wrap things up on the weekly P/L. Overall we made money but we were still fine tuning things a bit and our execution was shit. Somehow we still ended making +175.00 on the week.

In other news, this weekend is serving as the time where I really need to sell myself on my methodology and finish the tweaking for good. One of the primary reasons I feel I was successful in the month of January was not because of the method - it was because of the execution. I traded my system and I traded it well. That ability came from the confidence I had in the method.

This week I "knew" that the method worked but to be quite honest I hadn't done any hard data backtesting on the entries to see what kind of win rates to expect, draw downs, and overall profitability could be achieved. This lack of proof planted a little seed of doubt in the back of my mind that caused hesitation, which caused fear, which caused missed opportunity and profit. That's unacceptable. So I realized I really needed to get hard data to give myself confidence in my entries so I could perform to the maximum of my abilities.

Furthermore, as I had mentioned in my last post I was refining my entry technique just a tad. I found I was getting in a bit TOO late with my last change in some instances so I split the extremes and did some backtesting on three separate five day periods chosen at random over the past three years. The results are below:

As you can see the "Entry 1" (what I was using for the first half of the week) is consistently the WORST performer. It scored the lowest win rates and lowest overall profitability in every instance. "Entry 3" is what I was using the last half of the week and while an improvement on "Entry 1" it was too late to the games that caused a lot of missed trades which negatively impacted its overall profit. "Entry 2" was the compromise between the two and it performed the best nearly every time. The exception being the final week in the backtest and it really came down to ONE trade that you would've avoided using the more lax entries. But I feel it provides the best overall compromise and is what I will be using come Monday.

What I needed to know almost as much as my entry criteria was that the method made money in EVERY random selection of data. It wasn't always pretty and you didn't avoid all the losses you wanted. In fact sometimes you got thrown around pretty damn well but as long as you stuck with the entries and could execute on every trade you were profitable at the end of every week. Knowing that fact gives me not only the confidence to do just that but reaffirms the reason WHY I need to do just that on every setup that comes along.

I spent so much time in the past week trying to figure out how to avoid the "end of trend" trades. I started falling down that rabbit hole of trying to erase every loss. But you know what? The losses are there so I can take the wins. And the wins outnumber the losses so why even worry about it? If you make any attempt to filter losses you ended up filtering wins and the wins were what kept you ahead of the game. So I am just leaving it at that and will be more than happy to take on the thousands of losses that will occur in this method over the coming years. Once you make peace with that fact your on your way to becoming a greedy bastard. And that's what traders are. We aren't in this game to make a little bit of money. We are at the screen every day to make obscene amounts of money every day, week, and month of the year. If you aren't you are in the wrong profession.

My advice to all of you is to embrace your inner greedy bastard. I finally have. I'm about to prove it to you all.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Massaging more Profits out of the Method

I'm not going to sit here and tell you i'm changing my method again - i'm not. But what I have been noticing is that some of my entries are a tad too aggressive and many times these aggressive entries (while yield a hypothetically lower risk value) offer more stop outs than if I were just a little more patient. So I tried relaxing my entries just a tad... maybe 7% and ya know what? It really did wonders for filtering some losing trades. Hell two of my losing trades today and my fakeout yesterday afternoon could've been filtered by just relaxing the entries a tiny bit. So I did make this change. In backtesting it shows the same thing over and over again. If with my old settings I got nailed on taking "end of trend" setups 10x's with the old entry criteria, I could cut out more than half of those by just being a bit more patient.

The downside? In some cases are going to be paying up a bit more for the position because you are getting in later. Other times your getting the same fill OR BETTER depending on how the swings play out. And once in a blue moon the position blows away from you. But more often than that scenario is the avoidance of bad trades and I much rather miss one winner if I can avoid five losers.

Trading is evolutionary. I'm still tweaking this method but frankly I like keeping it simple, bare bones how it is because I do believe it works. My biggest concern was catching all of these "end of trend" pullbacks. If relaxing my entries ever so slightly to confirm momentum in my favor can avoid just some of them it will do wonders for my profitability. This TINY change in entries from last Friday through today could've saved me -6 points on my 1min entries and -3.25 points off my tick chart entries... that's -487.50 in losses in FOUR DAYS! So I think this is a very valid and very good change to make and that's how I will be trading from now on.

Which takes us to today. I got creamed! First trade was a double bottom that didn't hold. But it was valid and that's fine. The next pullback faked me out on the tick chart (relaxed entries wouldn't have gotten in!) and then gave a valid sell on the time chart that I didn't take for reasons unknown to me. Actually I was kind of peeved with back to back losses so I walking around the house clearing my head and I came back and saw the setup and about chucked a monitor. Its one thing to take a loser, but to miss a winner - that's what really pisses me off. The next setup I took was also very valid and guess what? It was a fakeout end of trend again. Using the relaxed entries it would've been avoided. At this point i'm down -300 on the day. I took a signal using the relaxed entries around 1:15 and got a +1.5 out of it. Took another short at around 1:45 and had to wait through over 20 minutes of consolidation to get the move I needed to get to par and take profit but we held solid and made money. Today shoud've been a very profitable day (Around +3 roughly). But I didn't recognize the tweak I needed until lunch time, and ended up implementing mid day. But it was too little too late.

Later in the day around 2:10 there was perfect double bottom setup that was good for roughly about +2 that I pussied out on. So all in all I traded like crap today and didn't capitalize on the opportunities available to make money. I deserved what I got. To say i'm disappointed in my execution would be an understatement.

Trade Results:

ES: -112.50
NQ: +0.00

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

An Uphill Battle

Aren't days so much better when you start off with a win? I certainly think so. Today wasn't one of those days for myself. Typical stops on most of these trades on the time frames i'm using are between 1.5 and 3 points. Today I caught the end of the trend and got hammered for a -3.75 loss to start off the day. YIPPE! Was the trade valid? Yup. Did I get filled correctly? Yup. Did I suck it up and move forward? Yup. That's all I can do. So 8 minutes into my day I was down -187.50 an hour later I was sitting up +25.00 on back to back winners. YOU ARE ALWAYS AT THE LOWEST POINT OF YOUR EQUITY DRAWDOWN PRIOR TO THE NEXT TRADE. Its so important to keep this in mind. Unless you can take the losses and get back in on the next to get it back you can't beat the market.

I started trading at 9:30 this morning as everything was on hold until EIA Petrol was released. Again, front running this signal was dangerous and would've personally cost me money. In the afternoon I took a long lunch as Beige book was out at 1PM. Another big report I don't like to front run... price action was simply wedging in front of it anyhow so why even try to game it? Wait for it to decide and then place your bets folks! Today was just a great day to prove yet again how important it is to be aware of news announcements.

Later in the afternoon the rat bastards at the CME stop gunned my position and took me out for a -87.50 loss. But I just turned right around to the tick chart which hadn't fired a signal yet and jumped back in and rode it up for a +125.00 gain.

Overall, another up day which is great, but I haven't had any real "big" days thus far. That being said - i'm making money more consistently and more of it than I have with any other method so I just need to keep with it! Not a losing day this week? I'll take it.

Trade Results:

ES: +62.50
NQ: +0.00

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

A Rock 'em Sock 'em Day

Not gonna lie, I made one mistake today. I got to par one tick to early (pansy syndrome) on a trade this morning that high ticked us out before dropping for an easy +2. That was all me. The rest of the day was executed beautifully and even though we went from being +187.50 to -50.00 in the afternoon after some choppy fakeouts we jumped back in and made most of it back to end the day up +175.00. I traded the charts and took what they offered. Did it suck taking a -250.00 drawdown? Yup. But sticking with it was the key to walking away with profit.

One other thing of note was I took my first double top setup with these new rules and they really make it a much more high odds setup than ever before. Overall, i'm fairly pleased with the results. I wish I hadn't screwed up this morning but I did. Regardless I walked out with more than I came in with. Its also the most money in a day i've made thus far with the new system live. I'll take it!

Trade Results:

ES: +175.00
NQ: +0.00