Friday, May 1, 2009

A Solid End to a Solid Week

Well today was another great day full of great entries to take. Before I get to that I did want to discuss one tiny change I have made to the rule set. And that is that I will no longer be taking entries that occur beyond the current swing high or low. In backtesting i've seen a couple examples where I get into trades that signal after or as they have broken the previous swing high or low. The problem in my view is that this means a majority of the move is in all probability already played out and the likely hood for a retracement of that move is much more likely. That big -2.5 ES point loss I took earlier this week? It was a break of the swing low on entry that retraced hard.

There were two other trades today on the tick charts in both the NQ and ES that did the exact same thing. The trigger occurred with a break of the swing high and both stopped almost exactly there and went the other way. Of course this will keep me out of some trades that do go onto work and i'm sure over 100 trades it would even itself out but I much rather take fewer trades, and fewer losses, while ending up with trades that have a higher probability rather than throwing myself at every signal on the chart, especially the ones that have already made significant moves.

Onto the action. 3 Trades, 3 winners. That takes me up to a 4/4 profitability this week. I made money everyday. Net profit on the week was +627.50 (and that was with me taking some really shitty trades and still getting things worked out!) And i'm not going to call it a fluke either. I really think i'm onto something here that is simple and very manageable so i'm going to run with it. I'll be live again next week and ready to get back on track!

Trade Results:

ES: +125.00
NQ: +25.00


stan said...

Solid trading man. Just keep your mind right and don't allow yourself to become content or over confident. That's what happened to me and I ended up getting ahead of myself and that caused a fat draw down. Don't be impatient (not that you are, I'm just saying) and your profits will simply continue to pile up. Great job!

E-Mini Player said...

Way to go man...looking forward to even better results when you switch back to live trading next week!

Michael said...

Very good week Matt, I'm glad to see things coming together for you.